Linear roadmaps are misleading. Rethinking roadmaps to navigate uncertainty
Linear roadmaps are deceptive as they overlook future uncertainties. Roadmaps which acknowledge ongoing risks offer more realism. Effective managers must also foresee potential divergences.
Source : PavelASamsonov
In today’s business landscape, the conventional wisdom surrounding product management and innovation is being challenged. Linear roadmaps, the bedrock of strategic planning in product management, are increasingly viewed as misleading and incapable of addressing the ever-present uncertainty in the industry.
Rather than relying on linear roadmaps as a de facto tool for predicting the future, savvy product managers and innovators are adopting a more dynamic and responsive approach. They are developing roadmaps that acknowledge the inherent risk and ambiguity as time progresses. This approach allows them to navigate the complex and unpredictable waters of product management and digital transformation more effectively.
Recognizing Uncertainty and Risk
Traditionally, linear roadmaps paint an optimistic picture, outlining a smooth and straightforward path from product development to market success. However, this is often a gross oversimplification. The product lifecycle is rarely, if ever, a linear journey. It is filled with unexpected twists, turns, and forks that demand a more adaptable and anticipatory approach.
Anticipating Future Paths
In response to this reality, innovative product managers are shifting their paradigm. They recognize that the ability to anticipate possible branches in the product lifecycle is crucial for success. This new breed of roadmap involves creating clear criteria for following each potential path.
This might involve identifying various scenarios – such as market changes, shifts in customer behavior, and technical obstacles – and defining the metrics that would trigger a shift from the planned path. Notably, this also requires embracing the uncomfortable truth that sometimes, despite significant investment, the wisest decision may be to abandon an initiative altogether.
The Pivot Triggers Approach
An emerging technique that embodies this approach is the concept of 'Pivot Triggers,' a tool that simultaneously enables discovery and delivery. It integrates flexibility within the rigid structure of the traditional roadmap, allowing teams to react promptly to changes.
Pivot Triggers, introduced by
, work by establishing clear benchmarks or 'triggers' that signal when to pivot or abandon an initiative. These triggers are determined collaboratively, fostering shared understanding and accountability among team members. Furthermore, this approach promotes an 'investment' mindset rather than an 'estimation' one. Instead of focusing solely on completion, the team aligns on the value the initiative brings and how to recognize when enough has been achieved.This approach also provides a mechanism to actively avoid the sunk cost fallacy. Too often, projects continue due to the significant resources already invested, even when there's a realization that the initiative might not yield the expected results. The introduction of Pivot Triggers empowers teams to identify and take action on such 'zombie initiatives,' thereby preventing further unnecessary resource consumption.
A Toolkit for the Future: Building Your Dynamic Roadmap
Creating such a roadmap requires adhering to three core principles: Start where people want to start, think 'investing' instead of 'estimating', and ensure total shared understanding. It further necessitates a process that describes the idea, outlines potential failure points, delineates observable behavioral changes, sequences these behaviors, identifies signals, sets triggers, and regularly revisits these triggers.
While this approach may seem challenging initially, its potential benefits make it worth considering. It supports the concept that roadmaps are living, breathing documents that need to adapt to the changing landscape. It transforms the roadmap from a static chart into an active navigational tool that can guide teams through the uncertain waters of product development.
The pivot from traditional linear roadmaps to dynamic ones represents a broader shift in our approach to project management. It acknowledges the inherent complexity and uncertainty of our endeavors and equips us with the tools to navigate them effectively. It is a step towards more honest, adaptable, and ultimately successful project management.
Navigating the uncertain seas of project management requires more than a crystal ball - it requires a compass, a chart, and a skilled crew. As we venture forth into new territories of product innovation, it becomes crucial that we equip ourselves not only with the tools that map out a clear vision but also those that enable us to navigate the inevitable detours.
Treading the Uncertain Paths: The Role of Anticipation
In the arena of product management, anticipation can mean the difference between a successful launch and a misstep. We often emphasize the importance of responding to changes, but an equally valuable skill is the ability to anticipate those changes. This requires a deep understanding of the market, the product, and the various forces that may shift the balance.
Anticipating possible branches is not an exercise in futility or speculation. It is an essential strategy to plan for the 'known unknowns' and prepare contingency plans. Remember, an anticipated problem is an opportunity in disguise, while an unanticipated problem is a crisis.
Setting Sail with the Right Crew: Fostering Collaboration and Shared Understanding
No matter how robust our tools and techniques may be, they are only as effective as the team that wields them. Fostering a culture of collaboration and shared understanding is crucial to leverage the full potential of dynamic roadmaps.
This shared understanding extends beyond knowing the project's goals. It means understanding the rationale behind decisions, the implications of changes, and the role each team member plays in the larger scheme. It means ensuring that the voices of all team members are heard and valued, fostering an environment that encourages diverse perspectives and innovative solutions.
In conclusion, linear roadmaps, while useful in certain contexts, fall short of capturing the complexity and dynamism inherent in modern product management. Embracing dynamic roadmaps, Pivot Triggers, and a culture of anticipation and shared understanding offers a more honest and effective approach to navigating the uncertain seas of project management. As we look ahead to the future, it is crucial that we reassess our navigational tools and adjust our course as necessary. After all, the success of our journey lies not in our ability to predict the future, but in our ability to adapt and thrive amidst uncertainty. As product managers, let us set sail with the confidence that we are prepared for the unpredictable winds and the uncharted waters that lie ahead.
References
Pavel A. Samsonov - https://twitter.com/PavelASamsonov
Tom Kerwin - How to do Discovery and Delivery at the same time … with Pivot Triggers
